Goldman Sachs predicts 35% chance of US recession within a year

03/16/2023 05:01 • Daily Digest • 75 views

According to reports, Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of the US economy falling into recession within the next 12 months by 10 percentage points to 35%.

Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a recession in the US economy within a year by 10 percentage points to 35%

Analysis based on this information:

A recent report suggests that Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of the US economy falling into recession within the next 12 months, up by 10 percentage points to 35%. This announcement is certainly concerning news for investors and economists, as it indicates that the likelihood of a recession occurring has increased significantly in recent months.

According to Goldman Sachs, a number of factors have contributed to this prediction, including weak business investment, declines in manufacturing activity, and the ongoing trade war between the US and China. In addition, the likelihood of a global recession has risen, which could further impact the US economy and increase the chance of a recession.

It’s worth noting that this isn’t the first time that Goldman Sachs has predicted a recession in the US economy. In fact, their previous prediction was lower, at a 25% chance in August. The fact that it has now increased to 35% is a clear indication that the economic outlook has become more pessimistic, and there are real concerns about the strength and resilience of the US economy.

Some experts have pointed out that this announcement is likely to have a ripple effect on financial markets, with investors becoming more cautious and potentially pulling back from certain investments. It could also impact the US job market, with businesses becoming more hesitant to hire or invest in new ventures if there is a perceived risk of a recession.

At this stage, it is difficult to predict exactly what will happen over the next 12 months. Some economists believe that the US economy will continue to grow, albeit at a slightly slower pace than previously forecasted. Others believe that a recession is becoming increasingly likely, given the various economic and political uncertainties at play.

Regardless of what happens, it’s clear that the US economy is facing some significant challenges in the months ahead. Investors and businesses will need to be proactive and strategic in order to navigate this uncertain period and come out on the other side with their portfolios intact.

In conclusion, the recent announcement by Goldman Sachs that there is a 35% chance of a US recession within a year is a concerning development for the US economy and financial markets. However, it is important to remember that predictions are not guarantees, and there is still potential for growth and opportunity in the face of adversity.

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