Federal Reserve

On March 18th, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate needs to be lowered immediately. Musk: The Federal Reserve needs to immediately lower interest rates Analysis based on this information:Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk has recently urged the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate immediately. As per Musk, the Fed’s interest rate is way too high, which is hindering the economic growth of the country. Musk expressed his concerns via a tweet on March 18th, where he straightaway asked for immediate reduction of interest rates. The Federal Reserve aims to maintain a balance between inflation and the growth of the economy by controlling the interest rate. Interest rates have a direct impact on how much money people tend to borrow, which in turn affects the liquidity in the economy. When interest rates are high, it leads to the lower availability of funds in the market, resulting in slower economic growth. Musk’s claim of lowering the interest…

According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Observation”, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 20.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 4.75% to 5.00% is 79.7%; The probability of a cumulative interest rate increase of 50 basis points by May rose to 49.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in March rose to 79.7% Analysis based on this information:The Federal Reserve, being the central bank of the United States, has a major impact on the country’s financial markets, particularly with regard to interest rates. Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money, and play a key role in the economy by influencing consumer behavior, investment decisions and inflation. Therefore, the announcement made by CME on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision has garnered much attention in the finance world. According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Observation,” the probability of…

It is reported that in the recent week, the US banking industry has borrowed a total of $164.8 billion from the Federal Reserve through two credit facility instruments, highlighting the increasing tension in funding after the collapse of banks in Silicon Valley. According to data released by the Federal Reserve, the amount of funds lent by the Federal Reserve through the discount window reached a record $152.85 billion in the week ended March 15, up from $4.58 billion in the previous week. The last record high was $111 billion set during the 2008 financial crisis. The data also shows that the Bank Term Funding Program launched by the Federal Reserve on Sunday lent a total of $11.9 billion. From these figures, it can be seen that the US banking system is still fragile and has not yet fully emerged from the plight of deposit funds moving after the collapse of Silicon Valley banks and Signature Bank. The balance of other…

According to reports, the United States Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation of the United States, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued a joint statement. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the deposit support provided by banks to the First Republic Bank demonstrated the resilience of the banking system. The Federal Reserve is ready to provide liquidity to eligible institutions. Powell: The Federal Reserve is ready to provide liquidity to eligible institutions Analysis based on this information:The recent joint statement issued by the US Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation of the United States, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency reflects the resilience of the US banking system. The statement comes after the First Republic Bank received deposit support from several banks, which the statement highlighted as an example of the strength of the banking system. The US Treasury Secretary,…

According to reports, Matrixport, a cryptocurrency service provider, said in a report on Thursday that Bitcoin (BTC) benefited from the instability of the financial system, falling inflation made the Federal Reserve less tough, and regulatory excess hit stable currencies. With the persistence of these three trends, the price of Bitcoin may remain high and continue to rise. Investors have now awakened that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy has seriously damaged some investment portfolios and threatened the financial stability of the economy. Report: Regulators and central banks have classified Bitcoin as a commodity rather than a security Analysis based on this information:Matrixport, a renowned cryptocurrency service provider, released a report on Thursday that has stirred some excitement within the cryptocurrency community. According to the report, Bitcoin is benefiting from the instability of the financial system caused by falling inflation, regulatory excess, and the Federal Reserve’s indifferent response. The report cites the persistency of these three trends as the reason why…

On March 17th, Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, wrote that the Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Financing Plan (BTFP) had undertaken quantitative easing of $4.4 trillion in another way, even exceeding the $4.189 trillion printed in response to the COVID crisis. Although the BTFP plan is mandated to last only one year, it will almost certainly be extended preventively. The Federal Reserve is expected to either start cutting interest rates at its upcoming March meeting or a severe recession in a few months will force it to turn. Since the outbreak of the banking crisis, the yield on two-year Treasury bills has fallen by more than 100 basis points. The market is crying out for deflation supported by the banking system, and the Federal Reserve will eventually listen to the market. In this banking crisis, cryptocurrency has once again proven to be a stinky, wasteful, smoke alarm for the legal tender driven Western financial system. Founder of BitMEX: BTFP plans…

7:00-12:00 Keywords: Arbitrum, Federal Reserve, Base Test Network, Tether Summary of important developments at noon on March 17th Analysis based on this information:Arbitrum and Base Test Network, on the other hand, are examples of layer two scaling solutions for Ethereum, which is a blockchain-based cryptocurrency platform. These solutions aim to address the issue of high transaction fees and slow transaction processing times associated with cryptocurrencies. This suggests that the integration of cryptocurrency with traditional financial institutions will require the development of solutions that improve the scalability and efficiency of blockchain-based platforms. Tether is a stablecoin that is pegged to the US dollar, which means that the value of Tether is directly linked to the value of the US dollar. This suggests that stablecoins are becoming increasingly important in the cryptocurrency space, particularly as they provide a reliable way to store value without the volatility associated with other cryptocurrencies. This also suggests that stablecoins may be useful in the integration of…

According to reports, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet jumped from $8.39 trillion on March 8 to $8.69 trillion on March 15, the highest level since last November. US $300 billion increase in Fed balance sheet Analysis based on this information:The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has reportedly hit the highest levels since November 2020. On March 8, the recorded balance sheet stood at $8.39 trillion, but by March 15, it had increased to $8.69 trillion. This sudden jump in the balance sheet is due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy to stabilize the economy, which has taken a hit due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is divided into two main categories: assets and liabilities. The Fed buys bonds and other securities from the market to increase the assets side of the balance sheet. In exchange, it pays for these purchases via deposits, which form the liabilities side of the balance sheet. This process is known as…

According to a recent article by Nick Timiraos, the “shadow official” and mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve, more investors are currently anticipating that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle may have ended due to the broader financial turmoil caused by the collapse of two regional banks in the United States in the past week. Michael, chief US analyst at JPMorgan Chase, said that suspending interest rate hikes now would send a false signal about the seriousness of the Fed’s efforts to address inflation issues, which could also exacerbate concerns that the Fed is hesitant to raise interest rates. On Wednesday, the market believed that the probability of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates below 4% by the end of the year was close to 70%. Federal Reserve officials say their policies are mainly implemented by tightening the financial environment, such as rising borrowing costs, falling stock prices, and a stronger dollar. “But the effects of these policies will not…

On March 16th, JPMorgan Chase said that the Federal Reserve’s emergency loan plan may inject up to $2 trillion into the US banking system to alleviate the liquidity crunch. Strategists such as Nikolaos Panigrtzoglou wrote that the use of the Federal Reserve Bank’s term funding plan may be significant. Although the largest banks are unlikely to take advantage of the plan, the plan envisages a maximum usage scale of nearly $2 trillion, which is the nominal amount of bonds held by U.S. banks other than the top five. Although there are still $3 trillion in reserves in the US banking system, a significant portion of them are held by large banks. They said that the tightening of liquidity was due to both the quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve and the shift of funds from bank deposits to money market funds as a result of interest rate hikes. In addition, they said that the bank’s regular financing plan should be…

According to reports, JPMorgan Chase said that the Federal Reserve’s emergency loan plan may inject $2 trillion into the US banking system. （Watcher.Guru） JPMorgan Chase: The Federal Reserve’s emergency loan plan could inject $2 trillion into the US banking system Analysis based on this information:JPMorgan Chase, one of the largest banking institutions in the United States, has estimated that the Federal Reserve’s emergency loan plan could potentially inject up to $2 trillion into the country’s banking system. This news comes as the coronavirus pandemic has disrupted global markets and economies, causing extreme volatility. The Federal Reserve has been taking various measures to support economic activity and stabilize financial markets amid uncertainty. One of those measures is the unlimited quantitative easing program that allows the central bank to purchase unlimited amounts of government bonds and other securities. The emergency loan plan is another tool in the Fed’s arsenal, allowing it to provide short-term funding to banks to ensure they have enough…

According to reports, Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, stated on Twitter that cryptocurrency had not led to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley banks and Signature, and that the “culprit” was the Federal Reserve. Due to the shortage of venture capital funds and the high yield of money market funds, deposits have left the US banking system. Cathie Wood believes that regulators use cryptocurrency as a scapegoat for their regulatory failures in traditional banking. Cathie Wood: The Federal Reserve is the “culprit” in the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley banks and Signature Analysis based on this information:According to Cathie Wood, the founder of ARK Invest, regulators are blaming cryptocurrency for traditional banking failures. Wood believes that cryptocurrency has not led to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley banks and Signature but rather the “culprit” is the Federal Reserve. Reports suggest that due to the shortage of venture capital funds and the high yield of money market funds, deposits have left the US…

According to reports, the Federal Reserve will launch a real-time payment system, FedNowService, in July, aimed at solving the problem of delays in clearing existing inter agency financial transactions. The system will begin authenticating the first batch of participants in early April. （CoinDesk） The Federal Reserve will launch a real-time payment system to solve the problem of delayed clearing of financial transactions between institutions Analysis based on this information:The Federal Reserve of the United States is set to launch a real-time payment system called FedNowService. This move aims to address the problem of delays in clearing existing inter-agency financial transactions. The system will begin authenticating the first batch of participants in early April, with a full launch set for July. This new payment system is expected to improve the efficiency and speed of financial transactions, making it easier for consumers and businesses to transfer funds. Traditionally, payments can take days to process, especially when there are delays in clearing between…

According to CME’s “Federal Reserve observation”, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 20.3%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 4.75% – 5.00% is 79.7%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points to the range of 5.00% – 5.25% continues to be 0%; The probability of a cumulative interest rate increase of 50 basis points in May will fall to 0%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged in March fell to 20.3% Analysis based on this information:The recent report by CME’s “Federal Reserve observation” indicates that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates is high, with a 79.7% probability of raising rates by 25 basis points in March. This is a signal to the market that the Fed is confident about the strength of the US economy and believes that inflation is under control….

According to reports, according to the disclosure of Cryptographic KOL Mr. Whale, US Senator Elizabeth Warren said that the behavior of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (implied interest rate increase) directly led to the collapse of banks such as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. US Senator: The actions of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve directly led to bank failure Analysis based on this information:In the world of finance, US Senator Elizabeth Warren has made a bold accusation. According to reports, Warren has stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s actions, specifically his decision to increase interest rates, directly led to the collapse of major banks like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. This information was revealed by Cryptographic KOL Mr. Whale. The accusation against Powell is serious, as the Federal Reserve plays a significant role in regulating the US economy. The Federal Reserve sets monetary policy, determines interest rates, and is responsible for maintaining financial stability. Powell has been the…

It is reported that the current pricing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate swap will peak in March, leaving only 10 basis points left on the current interest rate increase bet. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate swap shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March is less than 50%. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate swap shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March is less than 50% Analysis based on this information:The message above suggests that the current pricing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate swap will peak in March, leaving only 10 basis points left on the current interest rate increase bet. Essentially, this means that the market participants are forecasting that the pricing of the interest rate swap will remain relatively stable until March, after which they expect a significant rise in interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate swap is a financial instrument used by investors to…

It is reported that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by December. (Jin Shi) The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by December Analysis based on this information:The Federal Reserve has been closely monitoring the economic impacts of COVID-19 and has been taking measures to support the financial markets. With the onset of the pandemic, businesses around the world started to experience disruptions, and the United States is no different. The unprecedented scale of the outbreak has forced the Federal Reserve to think outside the box to cushion the impacts of the virus on the economy. One such measure is to lower interest rates, and the Fed is considering a 100-basis point cut by December. Interest rates control the cost of borrowing for businesses and individuals, and low rates promote borrowing, hence spurring economic growth. The Fed rate cuts are usually meant to stabilize economic conditions, and this time is no…

According to reports, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman made a speech following the market volatility caused by the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) incident, refuting claims that the US banking system is facing challenges, saying that the US banking system remains “resilient and grounded.”. At the same time, Sherrod Brown, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, also mentioned in an interview with Bloomberg that the United States Congress would enact financial regulations to strengthen stress testing and capital liquidity standards for banks. The policy maker added that the prospects for such measures remain remote. In addition, according to Reuters reports, Brown also stated that the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates at its meetings on March 21 and 22. （Fxstreet） Federal Reserve Governor Brown: The Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates at its meetings on March 21 and 22 Analysis based on this information:The US banking system is currently facing market volatility due to the…

According to CME’s “Federal Reserve observation”, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 32.1%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 4.75% – 5.00% is 67.9%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points to the range of 5.00% – 5.25% has dropped to 0%; The probability of a cumulative interest rate increase of 50 basis points by May is 55.2%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate increase of 75 basis points to 5.25% – 5.50% is 24.2%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate increase of 100 basis points to 5.50% – 5.75% is 0%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged in March is 32.1% Analysis based on this information:CME’s observation indicates that there is a high probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 4.75% –…

It is reported that the Federal Reserve will investigate its supervision of banks in Silicon Valley and release its findings on May 1; Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Barr will lead the investigation; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that a rapid and in-depth investigation was needed around the issue of the Bank of Silicon Valley. The Federal Reserve will investigate its supervision of banks in Silicon Valley Analysis based on this information:The Federal Reserve has announced that it will be investigating its supervision of banks operating in Silicon Valley. The findings of this investigation are expected to be released on May 1st, with Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Barr leading the effort. According to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, a rapid and in-depth investigation is crucial due to the Bank of Silicon Valley’s pressing concerns. The scrutiny will be directed at how well the Federal Reserve handled risks posed by the banks in that region. This is particularly concerning, given the current level…

It is reported that the latest pricing of the overnight index swap (OIS) shows that the policy interest rate of the Federal Reserve will reach a peak of about 4.83% at the May meeting. Compared with the current level, it means that the Federal Reserve has about 25 basis points of room to raise interest rates, and then there will be about three interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each time at the December meeting. By contrast, last Friday’s closing level showed that the market expected the policy interest rate to reach a peak of 5.30% at the June meeting, while last Thursday showed that it would reach a peak of about 5.5% at the July meeting. The OIS linked to the December meeting has been reduced to slightly higher than 4%, which means that the interest rate will be reduced by about 80 basis points from the peak expected by the market in May, which is similar to…

It is reported that the former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury of the Federal Reserve said that the Federal Reserve would have to stop its high interest rate policy because it was destroying the balance sheet of the financial sector. The US banking system is not safe because the risk exposure of its five largest banks is twice the global GDP. Due to the global interconnection, the US banking crisis will spread abroad. Former US Treasury official: The Federal Reserve will have to stop its high interest rate policy Analysis based on this information:The message implies that the Federal Reserve’s high-interest rate policy might have had an inadvertent, yet adverse, impact on the financial sector’s balance sheet. As a result, the former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury thinks that the Federal Reserve will have to abandon this policy.However, the message quickly pivots to another point, stating that the US banking system is not safe because the risk exposure of its…

According to reports, Moody’s, a rating agency, said that the operating environment of the US banking system has deteriorated rapidly and the outlook has become negative. The basic forecast is that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy, which may aggravate the challenges faced by some American banks. Moody’s: The operating environment of the US banking system has deteriorated rapidly, and the outlook has become negative Analysis based on this information:Moody’s has recently sounded warning bells as the US banking system’s operating environment faces rapid deterioration, leading to a negative outlook. The rating agency pointed out that some American banks are already grappling with significant challenges, which may be exacerbated by the anticipated tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Moody’s assessment of the operating environment is an important signal to the market, as it indicates the potential for significant credit problems in the US banking system. Historically, these types of assessments have preceded financial crises, including…

7:00-12:00 Key words: interest rate increase, FBI, Federal Reserve, Iron Fish, Signature Summary of important developments at noon on March 14 Analysis based on this information:On a regular Monday morning, news broke out that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) had allegedly identified the mastermind behind a series of fraudulent activities related to the Iron Fish Signature – a blockchain-based platform used to verify and secure digital signatures. The FBI’s investigation and the subsequent arrests of the perpetrators caused a ripple effect that shook the financial industry, particularly the Federal Reserve, as it became increasingly clear that a significant amount of money had been siphoned off through this scam. Consequently, the Federal Reserve was forced to reevaluate its policy on the interest rate. Initially leaning towards increasing interest rates, the central bank now finds itself in a precarious position, with concerns that an increase in interest rates will trigger a domino effect of defaults among borrowers, which will lead to…

On March 14, Nomura predicted that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March and suspend quantitative tightening. (Cailian Press) Nomura expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March and suspend quantitative tightening Analysis based on this information:Nomura, a leading financial services group based in Japan, has recently predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March and suspend the quantitative tightening policy. This announcement was made on March 14 and was subsequently covered by the news agency, Cailian Press. The prediction by Nomura, which is a significant player in the global financial market, has led to widespread speculation and commentary from experts in the field. The move is seen as a response by the Federal Reserve to the ongoing global economic slowdown, which has been further exacerbated by the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates and suspend…

According to reports, Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of Citadel Securities, said that after the Federal Reserve rescued the banks in Silicon Valley, American capitalism was collapsing before our eyes. Founder of Citadel: After the Federal Reserve rescued the Bank of Silicon Valley, American capitalism is collapsing before our eyes Analysis based on this information:Recently, numerous reports have been circulating about Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of Citadel Securities, who raised the issue of the Federal Reserve “rescuing” the banks in Silicon Valley. Griffin’s statement highlights that American capitalism is collapsing before our eyes as corporations have become overly reliant on government intervention. Ken Griffin’s statement comes at a time when the government is injecting trillions of dollars into the economy, thereby, limiting the overall collapse of businesses due to the pandemic. Unlike other business owners who are grateful for the government’s actions, Griffin is sounding off on the negative impacts of government intervention on the economy. He argues that…